New energy vs old energy: what is more important is the growth logic

time:2022-12-02 17:17:17 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Fuel stock
New energy vs old energy: what is more important is the growth logic

Suggestion: Take volume and profit as the main line, and look for investment opportunities. [Expected double liters of volume and profits] Modules: Trina Solar, JA Technology; [Confirmed double liters of volume and profits] Small auxiliary materials: Xinbo Co., Ltd., Tongling Co., Ltd.; [Double liters of volume and price after heavy volume] Bulk: Lianhong Xinke, Hopson Silicon Industry. 1. [Anxin Telecom | Industry Tracking] The production schedule in September returned to July, and overseas demand is strong! [Silicon material: The production of silicon material in August was lower than expected, and the volume of silicon material is expected to increase substantially in September] In early August, due to factors such as maintenance, new production capacity ramping, and high temperature, the actual output was lower than Expected (expected 67,000 tons, actual 61,000 tons, if there is an error with the industry, the main reason is that it is difficult to calculate the batch due to factors such as the quality of the climbing material), the bulk transaction price will reach 303 yuan, and the spot price of a small amount will reach 312 yuan. With the easing of the epidemic and power cuts in September, the volume of silicon materials has gradually increased. However, due to the continuous expansion of monocrystalline furnaces and the need to complete the delivery of orders from July to August, combined with the demand for stocking on the National Day, it is expected that the price of silicon materials will remain high in September. . [Silicon wafers: Silicon wafer prices remain high and expected to improve in September] The shortage of silicon materials and crucibles has caused fluctuations in the output of silicon wafers, and the power cut in Sichuan has a negative impact on the local Yongxiang, Jingyuntong, Jinko, and Tonghe. However, due to the mentality of fast in and out of the bag, including traders, combined with the decline in demand for Tongwei's production suspension, the overall supply of silicon wafers has eased. Recently, with the resumption of production of Tongwei, some silicon wafer enterprises There is still a desire to increase prices, but LONGi has stated that the price of silicon wafers will remain unchanged. It is expected that the price of silicon wafers will be mainly maintained in September. [Battery: Demand is still strong, and quotations are still high] Entering September, due to factors such as the undetermined volume of silicon materials, the 3rd quarterly report, the demand for 930 installed capacity, and the stocking during the 11th holiday, the demand for batteries is expected to remain good. At present, the price of 182 batteries is maintained at about 1.29-1.3 yuan. The low-water inventory of batteries is the confidence of battery companies. For some small component companies, there are already 1.31 yuan quotations. In order to control costs, subsequent components may adopt a strategy of obtaining goods in small batches in batches. To avoid raising battery prices, components have a strong desire to control costs. Combined with the recent increase in battery capacity and the continuous release of large-scale technological transformation capacity, it is expected that the Q4 battery profit may be compressed. [Module: The actual production schedule in August is lower than the estimated data at the end of July, and it is expected to return to the level of July in September] The price of components remains high, with 182 single-sided ex-factory 1.96 yuan, 210 single-sided 1.95-1.98 yuan (the August ranking is: single Glass 1.93-1.95 yuan). At present, the inventory level in Europe has dropped sharply. In order to increase energy supply, it is also actively installing capacity. It is expected that the European market can still maintain a good pull before Christmas. The high price of components still puts a lot of pressure on the installation of domestic projects, but some existing ground projects have been forced to start. Suggestion: Take volume and profit as the main line, and look for investment opportunities. [Expected double liters of volume and profits] Modules: Trina Solar, JA Technology; [Confirmed double liters of volume and profits] Small auxiliary materials: Xinbo Co., Ltd., Tongling Co., Ltd.; [Double liters of volume and price after heavy volume] Bulk: Lianhong Xinke, Hopson Silicon Industry. Risk warning: Silicon material prices remain high. 2. [Institute News Agency] The mid-year report has European energy-related revenue! [Selling heat pumps to Europe] According to the Chinese newspaper, Wanhe Electric and Dayuan Pump Industry benefited from the increased demand in Europe. Among them, Wanhe Electric's heat pump products revenue in the first half of the year increased by more than 110% year-on-year, of which exports A year-on-year increase of over 143%. [Sales of energy storage to Europe] The most benefited are the batteries and micro-inverters related to household energy storage. The price and gross profit margin are much higher than those in China. Among them, 90% of the battery business of Paineng Technology is exported to Europe. The performance in the second quarter increased by 60% month-on-month; in the micro-inverter, the European business of Yuneng Technology, Hemai, and Deye shares accounted for 40%, 33%, and 15%, respectively, and the performance in the second quarter all increased significantly. In addition, Kstar, INVT, and Kexin Technology, etc., although the current proportion of household storage business is not high, but have high growth expectations. [Selling photovoltaics to Europe] Modules are the main export form of photovoltaics. The revenue of first-tier modules in Europe accounts for about 14-20%, of which JinkoSolar Europe accounts for 18.4% and Trina Solar Europe accounts for 20%. %, JA Solar Europe accounts for about 18%, and LONGi Green Energy Europe accounts for about 14%. In addition, the European revenue of inverters accounts for about 20-34%, of which Sungrow’s European revenue accounts for 20%, and Jinlang Technology’s European revenue accounts for 34%. The second quarter performance of these inverter companies increased month-on-month. All are above 90%, obviously benefiting from the heavy demand in Europe. [Sales of electricity to Europe] Currently, Northern International has direct electricity-related businesses in Europe. In the first half of the year, the Croatian wind power project brought a power generation income of 253 million yuan and realized a profit of 160 million yuan. Variety also has related businesses in Europe, but the price of electricity is limited, and the degree of benefit is uncertain. [Selling coal and natural gas to Europe] At present, Yankuang Energy (25%) and Guanghui Energy (33%) account for a relatively high proportion of overseas revenue. Yankuang Energy owns coal mines in Australia. I don't know where to sell it, but it has directly benefited from the rise in overseas coal prices. Guanghui Energy has a stable natural gas source, and overseas revenue has accounted for more than 30%. [Selling biodiesel to Europe] The EU itself is the world's largest consumer of biodiesel, accounting for about 47% of global demand. In biodiesel, the outstanding new energy (91%) that accounts for a relatively high proportion of overseas revenue and the company with significantly expanded production capacity Jiaao Environmental Protection (28%), of which Zhuoyue New Energy Biodiesel is mainly exported to Europe

(Responsible editor:Aerospace stock)