The switching rules of various hot spots such as SSE 50, Kechuang 50 and CSI 1000

time:2022-09-29 15:10:31 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Technology stocks
The switching rules of various hot spots such as SSE 50, Kechuang 50 and CSI 1000

Survival factor thinking: The market has eliminated the simple idea of ​​covering stocks. Although the rebound in May-June 2022 has brought some tens of billions of private equity returns to positive this year, the shock in July-August has turned many funds into the green, and there are still 74 funds Ten billion private equity will still lose money in 2022, including Danshuiquan Investment, Yongan Guofu, Hongcheng Investment, Shiva Assets, etc. In particular, for example, a product under the 10-billion-dollar private sale of Khiva assets suffered a huge loss of 60%, and the rest also generally touched the warning line. As of August 2022, the cumulative net worth of the product has triggered the warning line of 0.8 yuan net worth. In fact, the private equity product under Shiva was established in April 2019. It has doubled its income from 2019 to February 2021, and its net value increased by more than 102% at one time; but it has not performed well for more than a year. Well, it keeps fluctuating and falling, and it will hit a new low in August 2022. Since 2022, the loss will reach 37.88%, and the maximum retracement will exceed 60%. In 2022, the overall performance of private equity products under Shiva Assets will be poor, with an average loss of more than 10%, including some products managed by the head Liang Hong, which are around 0.7 yuan and 0.8 yuan. In the volatile market, he is not friendly to his advocacy of "high position + long-term stock holding + market allocation in the three places", resulting in continued weakness. To put it bluntly, this is not simply unfavorable to the industry game, but also has a clear thinking factor. After the epidemic in 2020, the changes in the market are obvious, and the profit logic of many industries has undergone tremendous changes, such as education, real estate, Internet e-commerce, etc. . However, the fund is still more persistent in the property management sector of Hong Kong stocks, and considers it to be an undervalued high-quality asset. In fact, Country Garden Services has fallen by more than 70% since 2022, CIFI Yongsheng Services has fallen by nearly 64%, Shimao Services has fallen by nearly 59%, and Jinke Services has fallen by nearly 68%. In addition, after 2020, the market has obvious characteristics of turbulent market, and a single hot spot is less sustainable. If it is held for a long time, it must be a roller coaster trend. In addition, it will be a high position, which is basically a continuous baptism of waves. It's no surprise that net worth has fallen. Only a band strategy can deal with such a market environment. Reflection of Fundamental Factors in SSE 50, Kechuang 50 and CSI 1000 Changes in the economy have also directly changed the operation of the financial market, which must be clarified by investors. Taking 2022 as an example, with the adjustment of July-August, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has already given up all the gains of the previous rebound in May-June; while the small and medium-sized market capitalization indexes such as the Kechuang 50 and the CSI 1000 have rebounded in the technology stocks. In the background, August was gradually rising, refreshing the high point of the rebound (it is worth noting that when the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rebounded rapidly in June, these two indexes were stagnant or even weakened). In the context of weak supply and demand in the domestic real estate market and insufficient credit demand from residents and enterprises, it is unlikely that the fundamentals will go up or down more than expected. The rate cut is a statement (since 2022, 1-year LPR and 5-year The LPR in the period has dropped by 15 basis points and 35 basis points respectively. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in June and July, and has already raised interest rates by 225 basis points this year), but we see that the central bank has not released liquidity. , still adhere to the total net return from July. Especially at the Politburo meeting at the end of July, it has been clear that the probability of subsequent large-scale stimulus policies is low, and the market has also changed directly (this is also explained in detail in "Policy Research on Inflection Points and Reflections on the Evolution of Financial Stocks"). The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has already used asset prices to indicate the predicament of social finance data: the stock price has returned to the level at the end of April, and in the macro environment of April, investors' concerns about the structural prosperity are also one after another, which has brought small and medium-cap stocks. slump. Since July, we have clearly seen that technology stocks such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have gradually become active, and the overall market is also starting to outperform the index and high-valued varieties. The cumulative yield of the CSI 1000 relative to the SSE 50 has reached the highest since 2018. Previously, I have summarized related varieties in "New Ideas of Core Asset Index and ETF Model Without Stock Selection", and they have recently achieved a 20% rebound. Then, I will introduce an industry that has been falling more and more recently, and there are also related hotspot switching ideas. for everyone to study.

(Responsible editor:Hot industry)