A shares: Brief analysis of the market trend tomorrow (August 26): Why is it soaring? Will it last?

time:2022-09-29 13:38:51 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Garbage
A shares: Brief analysis of the market trend tomorrow (August 26): Why is it soaring? Will it last?

Today, the heavyweight sector of A-shares is almost on the whole. Will the A-share market start a prelude to a rebound tomorrow? Below, based on today's disk and data, make an analysis and forecast on the trend of the broader market tomorrow. First, today's A-share trend and a brief review of the market. 1. The closing situation of the three major A-share indices: the broader market closed at 3246.25 points, an increase of 0.97%, with a turnover of 419.5 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12104.03 points, an increase of 0.06%, with a turnover of 567 billion yuan, and the ChiNext Index closed at 2667.3 points , down 0.44%. A total of 986.5 billion yuan was traded in the two cities, a sharp drop of 139.6 billion yuan compared with yesterday's 1,126.1 billion yuan; a total of 2,074 companies in the two cities rose, 2,691 companies fell, 69 companies rose by the limit, 29 companies fell by the limit, and 31 companies were fried. 2. The main capital trends. Today, the main capital of A shares is still a net outflow, with a net outflow of 344 million yuan from the broader market, a net outflow of 21.2 billion yuan from the Shenzhen market, and a combined net outflow of 21.544 billion yuan from the two cities. The sectors with the most capital inflows today are: coal 2.14 billion yuan, Chinese prefix 2.03 billion yuan, and Shanghai Stock Connect concept 1.88 billion yuan; the sectors with the most outflows are Shenzhen Stock Connect 12.3 billion yuan, lithium batteries 9.32 billion yuan, and solar energy 7.28 billion yuan , 6.85 billion yuan for new energy vehicles. 3. A brief review of the market today. From the above data, we can see that the purpose of the rebound is still the mutual cooperation between the main forces. There is no trading volume, it can only be said that it is a back pump. Today is a rebound in shrinking volume, which has not changed the recent situation of rising volume shrinking and falling volume. Today’s trading volume has shrunk by nearly 12% compared with yesterday, but the market has risen by 0.97%. This shows that the momentum of short-selling in the market has not been released, and some funds have fallen slightly. The quilt is still waiting to be released. The basic trading method has been slightly changed. A big feature of today's trend is that it only pulls the heavyweight stocks of various weight sectors: China Merchants Bank, which has been in the process of shipping, is in the banking sector, and today's increase is also 2.59%, and the securities sector is CITIC Securities. , up 2.97%, Ping An of China in the insurance sector, up 3.58%, and PetroChina in the oil sector, up 3%. This shows that the main funds just want to pull the market index, mainly due to the constraints of funds. Why is it going up and what is the purpose? The purpose is still to cover the shipment on the new lithium wind and solar plate. Today, the main capital of Shenzhen stock market again saw a sharp net outflow of 21.2 billion yuan, indicating that the shipments of the new lithium scenery sector are in full swing, because these sectors are mostly heavyweight and have a large market value. trend, the main shipment will be more difficult. Second, will the A-share market continue to rebound tomorrow? Through the above brief review of the market, we can roughly get the answer: after the rebound, it will still be a range-bound trend. This is because: 1. The broader market will remain range-bound tomorrow. Yesterday I said that today's pressure is 3240 points, and today's close is above this point, indicating that today's reverse pumping has not been completed, that is, the reverse pumping to 3250 points, relax a little, it is 3260 points, and it will open lower to 3240 points tomorrow. , it will continue to pump back towards the 3250-3260 points, and make a narrow range around it, and the range of large shocks is still 3200-3250 points. 2. The purpose of the main funds in the market is to try to slow down the speed of the market correction. There are several factors for this: First, the shipment of the new lithium wind and solar panels has not been completed. The main players of these panels are deeply involved, and the process of shipment will continue for a period of time. Second, other weighted sectors, such as big finance, are used to hedge against the market decline, rather than the initiators and promoters of the market. The third is the individual stocks that some dealers are deeply involved in. The most intuitive is that the demon stocks that have appeared recently will choose to be out of the market before the full registration comes. If the market continues to decline, these funds, private equity, and some old companies will be deeply trapped. 3. The downtrend is a trend, and it cannot be completed all at once. This is because: First, it is necessary to repair the short-term technical indicators of the broader market through sideways shocks. The daily KDJ, CCI and other short-term technical indicators of the broader market are currently in a downward state. Due to the large decline yesterday and the large deviation of the moving averages between the indicators, the market needs to rebound or rebound to repair. Second, the main capital shipment also needs to be shaken to complete. 4. Let me reiterate again. I judge the two criteria for the market to stop falling and reverse: the main funds continue to flow back, and new sustainable sectors that lead the rise appear. At present, none of them have appeared, and the main funds are continuing to flow out. Today Although only 344 million yuan has been outflowed from the market, the two cities have a total net outflow of 21.544 billion yuan; the rotation speed of hot sectors has accelerated, and it is a small amount of capital that drives weighted sectors or individual stocks. Today, it is mainly to pull index stocks to maintain the trend of the market. Therefore, the market downtrend is not over. To sum up, today's A-share market has rebounded. Through the above analysis, it cannot be judged as a successful bottoming, but can only be expressed as a rebound towards 3250 points. The performance of the market outlook will still require observation from all aspects. The purpose of the increase is still to cooperate with each other in shipments between the main forces. As a retail investor, remember not to forget the trend of the A-share market because of a one-day rebound. In operation, you should use the method that suits your habits, and don't blindly chase highs or buy bottoms. (This article is exclusively published by the author on Toutiao, and plagiarism must be investigated! Personal opinions are for reference only, not as an investment basis. The stock market is risky, and investment should be cautious!)

(Responsible editor:Aerospace stock)