Know the key points of next week's market (9.19-23)

time:2022-12-02 16:03:44 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Education stock
Know the key points of next week's market (9.19-23)

There have been several dives in the outer disk recently, and the A shares are not breaking the trend, and there are factors of resistance; on the contrary, when the Zhongyin (easy 9.15-16) is present, the outer disk is relatively stable. A shares still have their own factors, which is more critical. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate hike is approaching, and the liquidity of the foreign exchange market is obviously going out; on the other hand, the economic data is poor, and the market volume can always be relatively sluggish, even if it is diving like 9.16, it is difficult to stimulate panic. The market volume can be less than 800 billion yuan, and when it falls, the ratio of rise and fall in the two markets is more than 1:8, which means that there is an obvious group risk release, rather than a simple individual stock factor, which also involves the market time cycle. . Recently, several factors in the market have been sorted out: First, the characteristics of shrinkage are obvious. Since September, the market turnover has shrunk significantly compared with the previous period, with an average daily turnover of less than 800 billion yuan, and the issuance of new funds has also been relatively quiet. Therefore, in such a cycle, funds are not to be marketed, but to be dormant. Don't point all the factors to the external market, that will misjudge the factors, or you should look at the A shares from the perspective of the market environment. Funds have more thinking (the article will be explained in detail later, the time period and related factors faced by the market in the future) . Secondly, the recent weight is stronger than that of individual stocks, which masks some individual stock risk factors. Recently, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 is stronger than the CSI 1000. Since mid-August, this style switch has been obvious. Of course, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has not risen sharply, but compared to the latter's 13%+ adjustment, the former's ability to maintain a stable center of gravity in the near future is considered a strength. The result of the weight is that no matter whether the index rises or falls, it is a situation where individual stocks rise less and fall more. Also, Ningde led the sell-off of old hot spots. Ningde sold 10 billion yuan on 9.15, but since the mid-term report on 8.24, there were only 3 positive lines. In terms of price changes, it only rose for 2 days. We also repeatedly mentioned in July-August, the new energy topping factor, this is fulfilled. Of course, this price is what the market has taught us after 2020. Even if it is the strongest hot spot, it is still a big ups and downs, which must be followed, otherwise the roller coaster will be very painful. Finally, due to the index factor, the Shanghai Index also broke out in the late trading on 9.16, which was a bare-footed mid-yin line, hitting 3128 points, which was lower than the previous 3155 points on 8.2; the ChiNext was even worse, followed by 8.24. After the adjustment of Ningde, it fell weak all the way. It can be said that both indices are still continuing their weak pattern, which needs to be broken by external events. The extension of the gap factor and flash crash phenomenon Thinking about the gap factor: there was a gap of 3199-3203 points on 9.6, and there was a gap of 3250-3259 points on 9.14 (on 9.15, it once filled the gap of 3250-3259 points above, leaving 3254-3259 points) Gap), there was also a gap of 3191-3199 points in early trading on September 16. The gap is a manifestation of recent sentiment. Two consecutive downward gaps also mean that there will be a third gap next week, which is often a signal of local adjustment in place. Therefore, there is no so-called market today. Optimism and pessimism are just digesting the relevant negative factors in the time cycle and waiting for a turnaround. Looking at the capital outflow list, the main force of the sell-off is the new energy (vehicle) institutions headed by Ningde to get together, and the strength is very strong, and the stampede factor is obvious. There have also been more factors for flash crashes recently, mainly due to the more stampede on the stocks of institutions. In addition to Ningde and Biya-Di, Dongcai also dived on the 16th, which directly led to the weakening of the brokerage sector. In fact, for institutions, the redemption pressure and negative cycle after the net value declines, then some varieties may have their own factors, while some have no related factors, but the liquidity of institutions to deal with environmental pressure will also lead to related factors The diving of varieties, this is the market environment factor mentioned, not the single variety factor. For the diving of a certain stock, investors can interpret it as a negative factor, but if it is a group factor, this is the group risk release cycle to be faced, then we have to analyze "top-down", which is used before The mentioned time windows, policies and external events (the Fed raising interest rates) are also derived from this, so funds have to consider more, which is why such a cycle must be patiently waited for the market. Next, we will focus on analyzing the time period, important events, and factors and hotspots that the market will face in the later stages of the market for everyone to study.

(Responsible editor:Aerospace stock)

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