A shares: A brief analysis of the market trend next week: the reasons for the plunge and the trend forecast will be explained clearly

time:2022-12-02 05:36:58 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Garbage
A shares: A brief analysis of the market trend next week: the reasons for the plunge and the trend forecast will be explained clearly

This week's market has been a sudden change, and people are confused all of a sudden. The sharp sell-off in the securities sector on Friday has put A shares in an avalanche state, and analysts from all walks of life are looking for why there is such an extreme The trend, domestic and foreign, have been searched over and over again, and finally the reason is fixed on the misreading of the opinions of the State Council yesterday by various funds. It is an answer to all the spectators. Below, according to this week's A-share market trend and related data, we will analyze and predict how the market will run next week, and find out the reasons for the two-day plunge. First, a review of the market trend this week. 1. This week, the broader market fell by 4.16%, which is the second largest weekly decline this year. The last time it was on January 28 this year was a weekly closing decline of 4.57%, which shows the tragic trend of this week. A total of 1,393.1 billion yuan was traded in the broader market this week, a sharp drop of 361 billion yuan from last week's 1,754.1 billion yuan. This data contains three meanings: First, it was rebounding on the previous trading day of this week, which is an infinite rebound. Second, in the last two trading days, heavy volume fell sharply, with the two trading volumes reaching 747.6 billion yuan, exceeding the three trading days of the rebound. The third is the imbalance between volume and price, shrinking volume and rebounding, which is the most direct manifestation of the main force pulling up the index and actively fleeing at the end of a wave of market conditions. 2. The technical situation of the broader market this week: First, one Yin broke the fourth line. A long Yin this week broke the 5,10,20,250-week line, especially the 250-week line, which can be said to be a recent major event for A shares. The importance of the moving average is reflected in the function of a dividing line. Second, weekly technical indicators continued to deteriorate. Originally, the weekly KDJ indicator of the broader market has shown signs of completion of repair, and has begun to hook upwards, but this week's trend once again hit it back into the downward divergent trend. The weekly MACD has already appeared dead fork, and there will be a green column next week if there is no accident. The weekly MTM indicator began to accelerate its decline from highs. 3. This week, the main funds of the two A-share markets have been showing a net outflow, with a total outflow of 151.7 billion yuan, far exceeding the level of last week, indicating that the main funds are selling in tears. Second, why the sharp drop this week? There are only four trading days this week, one rose and three fell sharply. The reasons for this trend are many, one is the internal factor of A-shares, the other is external factors, and the most important is the factors of A-shares themselves. 1. The most important factor is the A-share market itself, which has led to the slump in the past two days. Through the above analysis, we can see that the market opened higher on Tuesday, which is an immeasurable agitation and a trend of divergence between volume and price. Now it seems to be a short-term top trend. What's more terrible is that A-shares have been shrinking continuously for 9 weeks, while the broader market has not fallen sharply during the same period. It is still a rebound trend on the daily line, and a resistive downward trend on the weekly line. In other words, this adjustment of the market should have occurred 9 weeks ago, that is to say, after July 15, the trend of the past two days should have occurred, but the main forces of A-shares insisted on holding together to drive the big financial industry. The sector uses the rotation of heavyweight stocks to stabilize the index and delay the adjustment of the broader market. It is really impossible to pull it. If you pull it again, the main capital will have no money to make, and even spend a lot of money on the heavyweight stocks. It's not worth the loss, and no one wants to be the last victim of drumming and passing flowers. The main force of the group runs a batch a day, and the one who is still holding it is no longer holding it. After letting go, there is a concentrated sell-off of the main capital. It can be said that the slump in the past two days is caused by the internal factors of A-shares itself. The so-called main force of A-shares collectively misreads the spirit of the management. among the trends. 2. The plunge in the broader market this week is a concentrated reflection of the negative impact of Fed rate hikes. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times in a row, two of which were 75 basis points. However, the A-share response was mediocre and seemed to have no impact. However, during the same period, the management issued a series of policies and measures to stimulate the economy. It is to hedge against the impact of the Fed raising interest rates, but our A shares are like nothing, it seems that there is no such thing. Why does this happen? Because there are a large number of new lithium scenery stocks in the hands of the main capital, they have not been sold off. Therefore, when we look at the stock reviews, we have never seen a complete and objective view of the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, and even some well-known economic experts. They are also urging retail investors to buy new lithium scenery stocks. Buying these stocks now is equivalent to buying a house in Beijing ten years ago. These famous economists have said that. 3. Even after the two-day slump, institutional analysts and some Vs are still insisting that the main capital collectively misread the management's meaning. Is one main force a pig, and the other main forces are pigs? They just don't want to let retail investors know the truth of the crash, and to pave the way for their rhetoric of a retaliatory rebound after the crash, and everyone should be vigilant. Third, how will the broader market run next week, will it continue to bottom out or rebound? My answer is: it will hit a low at the beginning of next week, then pull back towards the 250-week line, and then continue to fall, entering the overcast market at the end of the year. 1. Next Monday, the broader market will fall inertialy, to test the support strength of 3050 points, and then make a deep V trend that the market generally hopes. This is because: the weekly technical indicators of the broader market have gone bad again. As a weekly trend, it will take time to repair and it will not be done overnight. Therefore, the A-share market still has a downward trend. Why 3050 points? Because this position is the full-scale start position of the general market rebounding after the stage bottomed out on April 27, there is a part of the funds entered here, and this part of the funds has basically escaped at the high 3424 points, which can be changed from 7 On the 8th, it can be seen that the market sees the volume at the top of the stage. At present, the funds and private placements that enter the market at 3100-3200 points are known to chase the ups and downs, and fool people to take orders. When they reach 3050 points, they will try their best to make a rebound. 2. The rebound will last for one to three trading days, after which the broader market will enter a slow downcast state. Because there are only four trading days this week, the net outflow of the main funds is 151.7 billion yuan, far exceeding the level of last week. It is said that some of the main players have fled in victory, and the rest will be left to those who do not believe that A shares will fall. Institutions and retail investors have to work hard to support, so that the general trend will enter the stage of intermediate adjustment, which will last until the end of the year. 3. On Friday, the brokerage sector slumped. Don’t forget, the weighted sector that has led the market to rebound indefinitely recently is the insurance sector. This sector will make up for the decline at the beginning of next week. In addition, real estate, oil and other sectors have Some heavyweight stocks, such as China Merchants Bank, need to make up for the decline, which will bring huge pressure to the broader market at the beginning of next week, which cannot be underestimated. To sum up, the trend of the A-share market this week is an extreme trend, that is to say, it is expected and unexpected, and the meaning outside is an exaggerated decline. The main reason for the sharp decline is the infinite rebound of A-shares in the past 9 weeks. , because it violates the law of quantity and price, the quantity of land sees the price of land. Don't have high expectations for the rebound of the A-share market next week, and always seize the opportunity to get out on rallies to avoid the downward trend at the end of the year. (The above are all personal opinions and are for reference only. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market)

(Responsible editor:Aerospace stock)

Related content