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The metal plate strengthens, and the varieties in the market may be differentiated

time：2023-03-24 00:49:59 source：clevelanddrifters.com author：Aerospace stock

The metal plate strengthens, and the varieties in the market may be differentiated

The peak season of the industry is approaching, and the confidence in the non-ferrous metal market has greatly improved. Base metal futures prices rebounded in shock, and the non-ferrous metal sector of the stock market also performed strongly as the market expected the margin to improve. Analysts said that under the influence of multiple factors such as the accelerated pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the expected economic recession in the United States, and the improvement of my country's domestic demand, non-ferrous metals will have support from the bottom and pressure from the top in the future. It is recommended to fully consider the strength of the fundamentals of various varieties. Invest again. Non-ferrous metals bulls are making a comeback The non-ferrous metals bulls are making a comeback recently. According to Wenhua Finance and Economics data, as of the close on September 14, the non-ferrous metal futures sector has rebounded by 12.4% since July 15, outperforming other sectors. The domestic commodity index rose by 5.5% during the same period. The A-share non-ferrous metal sector has also rebounded significantly recently. Data shows that Jiangxi Copper has risen by 6.4% since the low on July 15, and China Aluminum has risen by 12% since the low on August 3. Previously, from mid-June to mid-July, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate hike, the non-ferrous metal sector continued to adjust. "In the previous metal adjustment market, the fundamentals of these varieties are still intact, and the global dominant stocks of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are at low levels for many years." Zhang Huawei, head of the non-ferrous research team of Soochow Futures, told a reporter from China Securities Journal. In August, due to the extreme high temperature weather and the continued high energy prices, the output of base metals was limited, and there was no accumulation of stocks in the traditional consumption off-season. "In August, due to factors such as domestic energy allocation, the monthly output growth of copper, aluminum and zinc metals was less than expected. The disturbance of overseas zinc and aluminum supply side increased, and the supply was tense in stages, which led to the continuous destocking of metals, resulting in a rebound in prices. , and related stocks have also strengthened." Zhang Jiefu, a senior analyst at Merya Futures, told a reporter from China Securities Journal. It is worth mentioning that under the circumstance that energy prices remain high and energy security is increasingly being valued by governments, the market continues to be optimistic about the demand prospects in the new energy sector. "The rapid development of the new energy field will drive up the demand for basic metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, which in turn will make up for the increase in demand from traditional 'iron infrastructure' (railway, highway, airport and other major infrastructure construction), real estate and other related fields. The gap caused by the rapid decline." Zhang Huawei said. The high premium of copper spot is unsustainable. With the rise of the bull market in the non-ferrous metal sector, the domestic "Dr. Copper" has experienced a period of high spot premium. The domestic copper spot premium has remained at a high level of 300-500 yuan/ton for nearly five months. Especially since September, copper spot premiums at home and abroad have expanded significantly, and the domestic copper spot premium has remained high, at 400 yuan/ton. float above. Industry insiders believe that the main reason behind this is that the spot supply continues to be tight. "Affected by the epidemic this year, the logistics disruption has led to a small amount of imported refined copper. From January to August, the domestic refined copper output increased by 0.02% year-on-year. The growth rate of imported refined copper has slowed down, and domestic refined copper output has not Significant growth has led to domestic copper spot inventories and bonded area inventories at low levels for many years." Liu Chao, chief researcher of BOC International Futures Nonferrous Metals, told a reporter from China Securities Journal. From the perspective of the spot market, against the backdrop of lower-than-expected production growth in August, domestic inventories remain low. Market participants said that the current spot circulation is tight, and stockholders are keeping prices high and intending to raise premiums. In addition, the overseas LME0-3 copper spot premium also hit a new high this year, reflecting that the proportion of overseas cancelled warehouse receipts has increased to the level of vigilance and forced position, and the inventory has remained at a low level. "As the largest copper consumer, China accounts for more than half of the world's consumption. China's traditional consumption season has arrived, and downstream orders have improved month-on-month. LME inventories continue to flow into China. The phenomenon of widening price gaps." Zhang Huawei said. With the increase in domestic copper demand, there has been a queuing phenomenon for domestic entry into the port recently. "The arrival of refined copper to Hong Kong will increase significantly in the near future, and the impact of the epidemic on domestic smelters will weaken. With the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that the operating rate of smelters will increase. After the domestic refined copper supply rebounds, with the increase in inventory, The high premium in the market outlook is expected to be suppressed." Liu Chao believes. Avoid Uncertainty Risks Non-ferrous metals, due to their commodity and financial attributes, often develop market trends under the leadership of fundamentals and macro-trading logic clues. From the perspective of macro factors, Zhang Jiefu analyzed that the pace of Fed rate hikes has accelerated, and US inflation expectations have fallen, which may become the main driver to guide the decline of copper prices. With a series of macro data and interest rate meetings approaching, the rate increase expected by the market will be reflected in copper prices, and copper prices will also be under pressure. It is recommended to use copper as a short-selling variety in the future. "For aluminum and zinc, the supply in overseas markets continues to be disturbed, and most of the pricing power of aluminum is still in China. With the accelerated implementation of domestic infrastructure projects, the marginal restoration of the real estate market is expected to guide zinc and aluminum prices to stabilize and appear to a certain extent. Rebound." "Under the domestic expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, the demand margin has improved, superimposed on the arrival of the traditional consumption season, and demand has experienced a cyclical rebound. It is expected that the global energy supply will remain tight, and the cost and supply side will provide base metal futures prices. Support." Zhang Huawei said that in the medium term, the major economies in Europe and the United States have serious economic stagflation, and base metal futures prices are still facing greater downward pressure. "In terms of operation, it is recommended that downstream enterprises of basic metals with strong fundamentals such as copper, zinc, and nickel in the near future carry out buying and hedging operations in order to lock in the cost of raw materials in the peak production season and ensure the stable operation of enterprises." From an investment perspective, Liu said It is recommended to pay attention to the strength of the fundamentals between varieties. "Consumer demand in the new energy field is stable, and it has significantly boosted copper. Tin has been affected by the order cut in the chip field, production has declined, and downstream demand has gradually weakened. You can participate more in hedging operations between varieties to avoid uncertain risks."

(Responsible editor：Fuel stock)

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