A shares: Brief analysis of the market trend tomorrow (September 2): Some suggestions for friends

time:2023-01-28 02:58:13 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Garbage
A shares: Brief analysis of the market trend tomorrow (September 2): Some suggestions for friends

A-shares are still fluctuating within a narrow range today and hit a new low this week. The main players are still looking for heavyweight stocks to support the market. Due to the constraints of funds, they can only find some heavyweights, which have little impact on the index. Large sectors such as the real estate sector, etc., have no sign of stopping the decline, so to judge the trend of the general market tomorrow, it is even more necessary to be calm and rational. In this article, I will analyze and predict the trend of the broader market tomorrow, and give some suggestions to my friends. I hope you can read it carefully. First, today's A-share market is still weak and fluctuating, with a downward trend of resistance. This is because: 1. Due to the sharp drop in the new lithium wind and solar sector yesterday, which brought great pressure to the index, the main force can only use insurance and other heavyweight sectors to support the market, maintain the range of the broader market, and barely hold the 3200 point area, because further down Just some of the main cost areas. The declines in these stocks have narrowed today, but they cannot be judged to be completely stopped. 2. The focus of A-shares in September is still the shipment of new lithium wind and solar panels. These sectors have been hyped for several years, and the overall increase has not exceeded 5 times. They are embarrassed to say that they are the stocks of the new lithium photovoltaic sector. Coupled with the recent rebound, many sector indexes have reached the top area in the early stage, and the photovoltaic index has even hit a record high. A new high, of course, this new high is forced, but after all, it is still a new high. With the huge increase in the early stage as the bottom, the shipments of these stocks will have some characteristics: the fluctuation time is long, the inflow and outflow of funds are more active, and there are few times of sharp decline, which are all caused by the price of these stocks themselves. These sectors are currently A The gathering place of high-priced stocks, due to the special market environment of A-shares, retail investors are mostly shunned by high-priced stocks. No matter what you say, most retail investors are reluctant to take orders, which will cause major shipments. difficult. As the funds and private placements of the second-order dealers in the A-share market, after receiving the offer from the big dealers, their purpose is to spread out the chips they received, targeting retail investors and some small institutions, which is why these stocks are good all day long. 3. Today, the main capital of A shares is still in a state of net outflow. The net outflow of the main capital of the broader market was 6.9 billion yuan, the net outflow of the Shenzhen market was 15.7 billion yuan, and the total net outflow of the two cities was 22.6 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 28 billion yuan compared with yesterday's 50.6 billion yuan, which is reflected in the decline of the new lithium wind and solar sector. And the scale of shipments have both converged from yesterday. The net outflow data of the main capital, combined with the trend of the market index, can better see the real trend of the main capital. Recently, this data and the trend of the market index have shown a positive correlation, and the magnitude of the outflow determines the decline of the market. 4. The broader market index has three consecutive yin, and both have upper and lower shadow lines. Today, the market is diving. This reflects the current market predicament, with no new funds entering the market, and the activity of fund operations on the market is decreasing in turn. Specifically, there is a lack of buying orders and selling orders in the market, and the sellers are generally dominant. This is related to the sentiment of retail investors. Many people do not believe that the broader market will experience a deep decline. This can be clearly seen from the capital flow of small orders in the capital flow. Today, the inflow of small orders in the large market is 130.3 billion yuan, and the outflow is 123 billion yuan, a net inflow. 6.7 billion yuan, can it be understood that the 6.9 billion yuan of net outflow of the main capital of the market was mostly taken by small orders? Second, how will the market trend be interpreted tomorrow? We analyze from the following aspects. First, yesterday's article said that the 3180-3200 point area of ​​the broader market is the key position for the broader market to complete the construction of the top of the arc. Today, the market closed at 3184.58 points. Entering this area, the broader market will test 3180 points tomorrow, because after falling below 3200 points, go to 3150 points. On the way to the point, the 3180 point has a certain degree of technical support, and technical testing is necessary. Second, there will be a rapid decline in the broader market tomorrow morning. The main purpose is to test the support of 3180 points, and then there will be two choices: the first choice is to pull back to 3200 points, which is determined by the characteristics of the recent market trend. There have been three waves on the minute chart. After that, it fell slowly again, blunt knives cut the meat, Vs continued to shout that the bottom has been found, and hurry up to buy the bottoms. The V that has been shouting up in the past two days has been increasing, and there are even many people who are calling for a reversal. This also reflects the main capital from the side. It’s still quite hard work. In order to fool those retail investors who are lying flat, the public opinion is still in place. The second option is to fall quickly, directly to the low point of 3155.19 on August 2, and then quickly pull back to around 3180. It can be dragged for a day, as long as the new lithium in your hand can be released, what is the trend? will get it out. I personally think the second trend is more likely. The third is, or the old saying, the old point of view, pay attention to the trend of the main funds, pay attention to when the new leading sector will appear. Because the main funds of A-shares are deeply involved in the new lithium scenery sector, they are all making a fuss about this big burden, and they basically have no intention and funds to develop new leading sectors, and only want to sell these high-priced stocks at high prices. Fourth, it is necessary to distinguish the role of weighted plates. Oil, real estate, big finance, Kweichow Moutai, etc. are currently the main products that are commonly used to protect the market. They have been activated in turn to cover the shipment of the new lithium scenery sector. This trend must be clearly seen, and don’t watch the sudden movement of the brokerage sector. When I got excited, I felt like it was going to be reversed. How could it be possible? Under such circumstances, the main force is not in the mood to find a new leading sector, and even if the broader market rebounds, it will not go far. Third, I would like to give you some suggestions. First, don't blindly believe the voices of some people calling for a rise, and pay attention to the objective trend of A shares. The current trend is a process of resistance decline. For those V who are self-righteous and often shout about rising, everyone should be vigilant and take a closer look at what kind of gods they are? The second is to correctly understand the meaning of buying more when it falls. The more you fall, the more you buy this method generally occurs when the bottom of the broader market has already appeared, or in the late stage of a long-term sharp decline, provided that after a long-term sharp decline. The broader market can now be judged as the second leg of a complete downtrend. The third is to be cautious about the view of heavy stocks and light of the broader market. This is a very confusing point of view. Not to mention that there are no eggs under the nest, and whether the market bottoms out or in what way is unknown, where will individual stocks be better? Not to mention strong stocks or something, when the market starts to adjust, strong stocks are often the first. Fourth, I only buy low-priced stocks, and the more they fall, the more I buy. This concept is unacceptable. I don't want to say more about this. The stock that once appeared in the A shares fell to more than 2 yuan. How did it fall? The overcast fall for more than a year is extremely cruel, and it cannot be done just by being rude. To sum up, the trend of A shares tomorrow is still not optimistic, keep a cautious and calm attitude, and wait for the short-term adjustment of the broader market to end. Learn to respect the objective trend of the A-share market and recognize the general trend in order to avoid disadvantages. (This article is exclusively published by the author on Toutiao, and plagiarism must be investigated! Personal opinions are for reference only, not as an investment basis. The stock market is risky, and investment should be cautious!)

(Responsible editor:Individual stock analysis)