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Is the medical track extremely good? Pay attention to these points when gaming

time：2023-03-24 01:18:43 source：clevelanddrifters.com author：Individual stock analysis

Is the medical track extremely good? Pay attention to these points when gaming

Medicine has been a growth sector for a long time, but it is also a sector related to policy and consumption. In this way, the industry has traditional attributes and scientific research attributes, thus forming a relatively complex valuation system and corresponding trends. There are also many strategies here. Let’s try to sort out a context and pattern that everyone can understand for your reference. When the pharmaceutical industry resumes, if you want to play a game, you must first understand two factors: From the beginning of 2019 to August 2021, there is an obvious strong cycle of medicine. Qing, the spring offensive was stimulated, and it was also driven by the new crown epidemic factor in 2020, the vaccine factor at the end of 2020, and then pushed to a high point in the third quarter of 2021. This wave of adjustment has also gone through nearly a year. The valuation factors have been digested significantly. Many performance and substantive factors have been promoted and improved, but the stock price has been much lower. Therefore, starting from the third quarter of 2022, it will refocus on the pharmaceutical sector. Opportunity now. However, there is a misunderstanding here. Many investors think that the market is 0 or 1, two extremes. In fact, there is a process in the formation of industry opportunities. When the market is pessimistic or the expectations are general, the valuation will be pulled down to a PEG (price-earnings ratio relative to earnings growth ratio) equal to 1, that is, only the performance growth rate, or even a certain discount on the growth rate. And once the market becomes hot, PEG can be given to 2 or even 3, such as 25% (PEG=PE/(annual profit growth rate of the company × 100), the PE increases to 50-75 times, if it is 50%, it can be given directly PE has reached more than 100 times, which is the phenomenon that the more you speculate, the cheaper it is. Of course, vice versa, why is the negative cycle of the down cycle so terrible, that is, even if you increase by 30%, because PEG can only give 1, that is to say PE is often given 30 times. Compared with the previous 50-75 times, the room for decline is more than 50%. Obviously, the growth rate is 30% more than 25%. As a result, the stock price has fallen by 50%. The market still feels expensive. This is the phenomenon of getting more expensive as it goes down. Therefore, if you want to play pharmaceutical stocks, you must first discuss two key factors: First, there are many barriers in medicine, and non-professional investments should try not to touch things with high research barriers, such as innovative drugs. , vaccines and other fields, if you can’t even understand the basic research and development data, the risk of participation is very high, listen to a word of advice, don’t touch it, this is not something that the existing ability circle can control, because all the games that follow are based on On the basis of industry research. Second, the pharmaceutical industry has a difficult problem. Fundamentals determine the value of the valuation anchor itself, but the liquidity and sentiment of funds will cause a volatility premium or discount on the basis of the valuation anchor, so its amplitude space is compared. Large (the previous calculation of PEG is a typical example). However, this actually provides us with different game modes. For example, we adopt a value investment model, use product and performance factors to determine a fundamental value anchor position, and then fall to the low after the position. Suction strategy, and finally wait until the value is realized. This is the value investment that Buffett admires. The other type is completely the opposite. It does not care about local trend factors, but is more concerned about the trend. After completing the bottom platform, the opportunity on the right side is confirmed, or the trend is weak. To become stronger, as long as it is satisfied, the high stock price does not matter. Several stages of the industry track hype and thinking We can find the characteristics of several stages by sorting out the factors of the track: The first stage is relatively simple, raising the valuation, relying on policies or high-level speeches , to open up the valuation of an industry; A shares are the most liked valuation factors, and once they are stimulated, they are often overpriced. Therefore, the first wave is speculation regardless of concept and substance, which is very confusing. The valuation is digested. To put it bluntly, there are many ghost stories in the entire capital market, which are full of various worries about the industry, so a negative cycle is formed in the process of falling; at this time, the more struggling, the more uncomfortable, and various The positive logic is also not recognized by the market. This is the emotional factor of capital, but this is how the opportunities in the future are brewed. The third stage, the substantive cycle, who can come up with products, realize the profit model, and innovate the track, is the industry winner. However, due to the continuation of related negative emotions in the second stage, this cycle will be more complicated. Many factors are obviously better than the first cycle, and the valuation is lower than that of the second cycle, but the increase is not good. Once the penetration rate passes through the difficult cycle, The later stage is the multiplier effect (the lotus pond theory), and there is the rapid breakthrough stage we mentioned. Therefore, if it is not the first two Continuous follow-up research in this cycle. The third cycle is relatively sudden and has the biggest questioning factor. It is difficult to participate. Later, the follow-up factors appear, and there are also profits. However, due to missing the low base factor, the later stage mentality and game strategy have a greater impact. You can compare the existing new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, etc., all of which are like this, including similar semiconductors, innovative drugs, etc., which also go through the process of relevant cycles. Next, we take the second half of 2022 as an example, the factors and related strategies that the pharmaceutical and medical sector will experience, for your reference.

(Responsible editor：Trend)

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