A shares: tomorrow (September 9) market trend forecast analysis-clevelanddrifters.com

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A shares: tomorrow (September 9) market trend forecast analysis

time：2023-03-24 02:17:03 source：clevelanddrifters.com author：Aerospace stock

A shares: tomorrow (September 9) market trend forecast analysis

Today's A-shares are very tired, and so are the participants, but those who call for a reversal all day are not tired of it. , full of blood resurrection, all kinds of theories, all kinds of accurate predictions are full of major platforms, only talking about rising, not talking about decline, a market with two-way movement is said to be a market that operates unilaterally, the harm is great, and there is no way out its right. Below, based on the trend of the broader market today, I will make a simple analysis and forecast on the trend of the broader market tomorrow. First, today's closing of the three major A-share indexes and the main capital trends. 1. Today, the broader market closed at 3,235.59 points, a decrease of 0.33%, with a turnover of 328.7 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,746.92 points, a decrease of 0.86%, with a turnover of 459.6 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 2,523.01 points, a decrease of 1.86%. The total transaction volume of the two cities was 788.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.6 billion yuan compared with yesterday's 871.9 billion yuan. Shows that market trading is relatively light. 2. The trend of the main capital: The main capital of the market today has a net outflow of 8.7 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen market has a net outflow of 19 billion yuan, with a total net outflow of 27.7 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 21.6 billion yuan from yesterday's 6.1 billion yuan. The net outflow for the second consecutive day shows that today's main force is fleeing with extra weight. Today, none of the major net inflows of funds exceeds 700 million yuan. For example, the precious metal plate with the largest net inflow is only 683 million yuan. Compared with the 13.6 billion yuan of the FTSE Russell concept, the 6.6 billion yuan of the fund's heavy position concept, the 6.6 billion yuan of the lithium battery sector, and the 6.6 billion yuan of new energy vehicles, the large net outflows are not worth mentioning. Second, the trend of the broader market today has the following three characteristics: 1. Strictly speaking, it is a trend that continues to induce more. The intraday surged to 3250 points four times. The result was that the trading volume could not be effectively enlarged. It even appeared again at 1:00 pm, but the trading volume was still very calm, and then it started a unilateral downward trend, which can be judged as yes More than four times to lure, but not very successful. This is mainly because there is no capital to follow suit, and the main force induces more. I have said many times the role of 3250 points, that is: it is the current neckline position of the top of the arc. If it cannot effectively break through and stand firm, the market will test the trend of 3150 points in the next step. Among the 100 listed companies with the most serious losses in the interim report recently announced by the media, these two sectors account for 9 companies. Air China has a loss of 19.435 billion yuan and China Eastern Airlines has a loss of 19.435 billion yuan. 18.736 billion yuan. Today, these stocks are also trending higher, creating a false impression that the market is full of negatives and positives. Sell as much as you can. The typical lure is 2, and the strength of defending the market is getting weaker and weaker. Without the previous three major financial sectors and liquor, the momentum of going into battle together, the broader market will only fluctuate within a narrow range. This is the best outcome. The main force behind this rebound is the insurance sector. The insurance sector has been used the most to support the market recently. However, we also saw that the insurance index has reached the annual line. Today, the impact on the annual line failed, and there was a correction during the session. In addition, the index also reached the top of the year in June this year. The position of the neckline can also be judged that the rebound of the insurance sector has basically come to an end. It is difficult to reproduce the scene of the heavyweight stocks collectively supporting the market. We can see the trajectory of the main force supporting the market, and it is also convenient for us to judge the trend of the broader market. Heavyweight sector support plate. The major financial sector, securities sector, and banks are basically unchanged, but the main force will not let go of the subdivided banking sector. Like today's small and medium-sized banking sector, the trend is strong, with an index increase of 1.4%. The second is that the heavyweight stocks in each sector cooperate with the support market, and one or two heavyweight stocks in one or two sectors support the market, and then a large heavyweight stock protects the market by itself. The most used ones are PetroChina and Kweichow Moutai, Oriental Fortune, Ningde Times, etc. The most fundamental reason for this situation is that the trading volume cannot be effectively enlarged, and there is no new capital entering the market. Funds and private equity are playing in the market. It is impossible to play without capital participation. . 3, or the issue of volume. Today's shrinkage once again illustrates the trend on Tuesday. It is the main force pulling itself and singing, and the trend of pulling up is the purpose of shipping new lithium scenery. Third, from a technical point of view, how will the broader market run tomorrow? The short-term general trend is to move closer to 3200 points. Tomorrow is an integral part of this short-term trend, and it will be gradually lowered, but the overall fluctuation is still between 3200-3250 points. First of all, pay attention to one area: the 3220-3230 point range. This position is a resistance level to fill the gap downward, that is to say, the main capital will resist at this position, and will use various tricks to pull the weighted sectors or heavyweight stocks to control the index, creating the illusion of a homeopathic callback. , you can fool as much as you can. Followed by the technical indicators of the 60-minute trend chart, all of which have begun to tick downwards, such as KDJ, CCI, etc. It is worth noting that the 60-minute MACD indicator, its red column peak has been formed, and has now converged to a green one. stage, indicating that tomorrow morning will be a downward trend. Once again, the daily technical indicators have not changed with Tuesday's Yang Xian. The daily CCI started to flatten above the 0 axis and no longer went up. MACD just appeared three small red dots looming, indicating that the power of the disk to go long was very weak. This position must be backed by volume, and if it shrinks, be vigilant. Through the above analysis, we can see that the trend of A-shares is weak today, the trend of attracting bulls is repeated in the intraday, the strength of the support market is declining rapidly, and the trading volume cannot be effectively enlarged, but it has shrunk sharply, all of which need to be vigilant. Since the main force pulled out the Zhongyang Line on Tuesday, the market has returned to the 3200-3250 point range, and it will not quickly leave this area in the short term. Therefore, tomorrow's market will still fluctuate slightly. Pay attention to the risks of some individual stocks in the short term. (This article is exclusively published by the author on Toutiao, and plagiarism must be investigated! Personal opinions are for reference only, not as an investment basis. The stock market is risky, and investment should be cautious!)

(Responsible editor：Aviation stock)

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