A shares: The RMB falls below the 6.95 mark, causing foreign capital to flee. Tomorrow, the market is destined to be difficult?

time:2023-03-24 00:29:52 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Garbage
A shares: The RMB falls below the 6.95 mark, causing foreign capital to flee. Tomorrow, the market is destined to be difficult?

Today, the market situation has changed abruptly. The main capital and the northbound capital have fled, causing the stock market to fluctuate sideways for a whole day, and also let the hearts of retail investors beat for the whole day. Fortunately, it was pulled back at the last moment, and the market also took a breather. Opportunity. In fact, there are two reasons for the flight of northbound funds. One is that there is a risk in the market. They detected the news in advance and avoided it urgently. Second, renminbi assets do not maintain their value, so they quickly flow out of the market and come back when the exchange rate stabilizes. And the reason that prompted them to leave today happens to be the devaluation of the renminbi. On September 5, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.8998 yuan, a new low since September 2020. On September 5, the lowest exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.9445 yuan, and the lowest exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.9548 yuan, gradually approaching 7 yuan. The fall in the exchange rate has prompted foreign capital to evade risks. This is a very normal move. Large capital outflows did not bring the stock market down, which is fortunate. This also shows from the side that the resilience of A shares is getting stronger and stronger, and we should not belittle ourselves. Just now, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said, "We like to see a reasonable, balanced and basically stable RMB exchange rate. We also have strength to support it. I don't think there will be an accident, and it is not allowed to happen." From September 15, 2022, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be lowered by 2 percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be lowered from the current 8% to 6%. This set of punches came out, and the force was just right. According to the data, the exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the US dollar was 6.9352 yuan, and the exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar was 6.9447 yuan, which rebounded by 93 basis points and 101 basis points from the intraday lows respectively. Yang Ma has undoubtedly played the role of the key lady again, intervening in the market in time to prevent the RMB exchange rate from falling and attract the attention of international capital, which is good for the A-share market. If there is no accident, the northbound funds will flow back tomorrow. At that time, the long and short sides will start a new battle, and the bulls will fully counterattack. In terms of data, 2,566 stocks in the two cities rose, 2,218 stocks fell, 64 stocks rose by the daily limit, and the number of stocks with the lower limit was 11. In the absence of incremental capital entering the market, the stock can rise more or fall less, which is already a very good achievement. At moments like this in the past, indexes have collapsed, and individual stocks have long since gone to hell. In fact, we can clearly feel that the high-level holding stocks led by automobiles have sold off very sharply, so Christian Democrats should feel very painful. Core sectors such as lithium batteries, semiconductors, aviation equipment, medical services, etc., have been slashing valuations recently. These places with heavy capital are really killing them. Now, you should realize that where is the center of gravity of the market, this point is a double-edged sword, which can not only prop up A shares to the sky, but also drive it to hell. In this case, our operation strategy is relatively simple, and it is enough to take a low breath while it is being beaten into hell. Once you've had enough to eat and drink, it's time to hand it over, and the market will give you the best feedback. However, retail investors are emotional animals, and even if I say so, they may not believe it! Maybe they thought that I was with the main force, and they were hurting them by asking them to buy stocks on the way down.

(Responsible editor:Education stock)

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