Just now, the central bank made another move. Is the money bag stable?

time:2023-01-28 16:49:10 source:clevelanddrifters.com author:Market analysis
Just now, the central bank made another move. Is the money bag stable?

Just now, it was surprising that the central bank made another move, because the central bank issued an announcement. This announcement is likely to have some boosting effect on the currently sluggish A-share market. Then, this announcement is what? The general content of the central bank's announcement is that starting from September 15, 2022, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be reduced by 2 percentage points, that is, the previous 8% of foreign exchange deposit reserves will be reduced to 6%. This action is not very common. . Why do you say the central bank has taken action again? In fact, in April this year, the central bank also lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve, from 9% to 8% at that time, but it was only lowered by 1% at that time, but this time, the central bank directly lowered it by 2%. Noticeably started to increase. what does that mean? In the author's opinion, this means that the central bank is stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, because the US dollar has appreciated too much recently, while other non-US currencies, including the RMB, are actually in a downward trend. Especially today, the US dollar index jumped up at the opening of the market. So far, the US dollar index has risen by 0.4%, and the RMB exchange rate has fallen again. At the intraday, it hit a new low in 2 years. . Therefore, the author believes that, just now, the central bank has shot again, and there is the possibility of maintaining the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, to a certain extent, in the short term, the money bag is stable. Moreover, since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has fallen by more than 9%, which is enough to see that this year, subject to the influence of the rising US dollar exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate has continued to decline. At the end of April this year, the central bank lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio. Although the RMB exchange rate did not rebound immediately, in late May, the RMB exchange rate still rebounded. After a few months of sideways, in the middle of last month, with the gradual increase of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, which led to the rapid rise of the US dollar, the renminbi once again ushered in a wave of decline. Therefore, this time the central bank took another shot and lowered it by 2% all at once, which is more likely to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate. This is especially true of foreign capital. Affected by the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate, there has been a net outflow of northbound funds of up to 7.6 billion today. If the exchange rate continues to fall, this outflow trend may continue. Therefore, the 2% reduction in foreign exchange deposit reserves now means that more US dollar foreign exchange can be released to the market, which may increase the liquidity of US dollar foreign exchange, so as to alleviate the downward trend of the RMB exchange rate. Under this circumstance, the pace of foreign capital outflow may also be slowed down. So, is the end of the stock market coming? Today's stock market did come out of a bottoming and rebounding market at the end of the session. However, the increase is very limited, and it can only be regarded as a weak market under a weak rebound. Although the GEM has risen, the falling stocks are still relatively high. Many. The overall bullish atmosphere in the market is actually not strong, the hot sectors are not very obvious, and the market has lost its leader. Funds rotate back and forth among several old hot sectors, which limits the overall atmosphere of the current Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Although the Shanghai Composite Index closed a hammer today, it can be seen from its daily chart that the Shanghai Composite Index has been running on a horizontal line for 3 consecutive trading days, and the short-term weak market is very weak. The hard end is coming. However, this time, the central bank has made another move, which will play a certain role in boosting the stock market tomorrow, which is very important.

(Responsible editor:Technology stocks)