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Now, America is in trouble

time:2023-01-28 05:44:34 author:Education stock
Now, America is in trouble

During the recent period, the global stock market has been fluctuating, especially the US stock market can be described as appalling. The Nasdaq has fallen for 6 consecutive trading days, which is almost the longest losing streak in the Nasdaq in more than two years. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative decline of the Nasdaq is even more. reached 25.66%. In the trend of its annual line chart, as of the last trading day of this week, there is a big negative line, which is a negative line, which directly takes all the gains of the Nasdaq you mentioned last year. Smoothed out. I think this is a normal phenomenon. Because, in the past few years, the Nasdaq index ran along the 5-year line, and did not deviate from the 5-year line. However, last year, the Nasdaq began to accelerate upward, and it suddenly moved away. The 5-year line, leading to an expansion of the divergence rate between the index and the 5-year line. Since this year, this big negative line has directly compensated for the deviation rate, which is a very normal repairing market. However, the market usually changes in trend after the acceleration of the rise, and the shock and fall of the US stock market this year is a good signal. Therefore, the author believes that the US is in trouble now, especially the capital market. Moreover, according to relevant data, last week, the net outflow of US stock funds reached more than 6 billion US dollars, and the amount of net outflow in this single week also hit a new high in nearly 10 weeks. At the same time, it is also the fourth highest in the U.S. stock market this year. If it's just that the U.S. stock market is underperforming, it's not a troublesome place. The key point is that at this time, the U.S. bond market has also begun to have troubles. So, where is this trouble reflected? The data shows that the net outflow of US bond funds has also reached 4.2 billion US dollars. Although the amount of outflow is not very large, the total amount of US bond funds sold this year has reached 284 billion US dollars. What does this mean? ? This means that there has been a wave of selling in U.S. bonds this year, and this year has not yet passed, and there are still more than three months to go. However, the amount of U.S. bonds sold has hit a new high since 2002. This data should not be underestimated. . It can be seen that the US capital market is going through a major test, so this time, the US is also in trouble. However, in contrast to this, the US dollar index has instead embarked on a wave of expected upside this year, because data shows that as of the last trading day of this week, the US dollar index has risen 14.53% this year. Let's just say, this year is not completely over, the US dollar index's gains this year have hit a new high in more than 30 years. Even, analysts on Wall Street believe that with the continuous advancement of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index may break through the high of 164 points in 1985. Of course, this historic high is difficult to break through, just because of concerns about raising interest rates. . Especially under the pressure of high inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates further. The recently released non-farm payrolls data performed better, which led market analysts to adjust the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points this month from more than 70% to more than 50%. However, it is also enough to see that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. Probably won't stop. On the one hand, funds from the U.S. stock market continue to flow out, and on the other hand, funds from the U.S. bond market continue to flow out. This is indeed a very troublesome thing for the United States. Under the cycle of interest rate hikes, the value of assets denominated in dollars has also begun to increase. Estimated. Therefore, the Fed's meeting on interest rates in September has become crucial.

(Responsible editor:Aerospace stock)

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