The U.S. stock semiconductor industry has plummeted for days, what happened? What do the institutions think?

time:2022-09-29 15:01:14 author:Fuel stock
The U.S. stock semiconductor industry has plummeted for days, what happened? What do the institutions think?

Before the outgoing order reduction of TSMC (TSM.US)$, the performance of NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ declined. As a well-known "roller coaster cycle" industry, the semiconductor index has been tested for the second time in just two months. At the end of the day, industry sentiment will change. Interestingly, in August, the semiconductor industry ushered in a small rebound. At that time, as several major chip giants successively disclosed the latest performance guidance, the market also changed from a comprehensive bearish semiconductor cycle to an optimistic expectation for data centers such as automobiles and industries, and the demand for power dissipation chips such as PCs slowed down. weak pessimism. Related reading: Chip stocks have soared recently! The market is here again? How do companies in the industry see it? However, recently, due to the latest performance guidance of NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and the disclosure of policy events, the market has also begun to have pessimistic expectations on the demand for chips in data centers such as automobiles and industries.

The performance guidance of the GPU leader is lower than expected, and the policy crackdown is even more pessimistic

According to the financial report, Nvidia's revenue in the second quarter was US$6.7 billion, which was lower than market expectations; the revenue guidance in the third quarter was US$5.9 billion, lower than the market. The expected $6.9 billion. In terms of breakdown, the company expects that the game business will continue to be sluggish in the third quarter, mainly to reduce sales and ease the inventory of channel dealers. However, gross profit margin is expected to recover from 44% in Q2 to 61.9%-62.9%. In addition, in the second quarter, the company's data center business revenue increased by only 1% quarter-on-quarter, mainly from the revenue growth of North American hyperscale customers, while the sales of Chinese hyperscale customers and large Internet companies both declined, pulling down The overall revenue level of the data center business. Since NVIDIA's GPU chips are the most advanced productivity in the market, the news basically broke the already fragile demand expectations. And, according to worse news: Recently, the US government ordered chip manufacturers NVIDIA (NVIDIA) and $US Supermicro (AMD.US) $ two GPU manufacturers to stop selling some high-performance GPUs to China. NVIDIA also informed Chinese Internet customers that the company will limit the sale of high-end Al training GPU chips: H100 and A100, etc. These high-performance GPUs are more used in cutting-edge advanced intelligent computing power (it is reported that 20 H100 GPUs can support equivalent to global Internet traffic). At present, companies such as $Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$, $Baidu (BIDU.US)$, and Byte have all verified that they have received the notification. There may be news of clear sanctions in the follow-up, which is currently a pre-communication.

Institutional analysis: The current market demand is still pessimistic, and the demand for data centers and automotive chips is cautious.

In addition, Citi Research recently released a report, saying that the semiconductor industry is entering the worst downward cycle in a decade, and the automotive industry is entering the worst downturn in a decade. It is inevitable that demand for chips in the industrial sector will decline. The report analyst Christopher Danley said that both the automotive and industrial end markets are showing early signs of correction, and the semiconductor industry is entering its worst slump in a decade given the recession and rising inventories. And executives at Micron Technology and analog chip giant ADI have disclosed in recent weeks that orders have been cut in the automotive and industrial sectors. Danley believes that as capacity increases and demand weakens, more companies are expected to announce cancellations of orders from the automotive or industrial end markets. In addition, the HSBC technology industry team also recently released a report saying that the current demand for data center and automotive chips is slowing down. Specifically: (1) Data Centers: While we have not seen any meaningful slowdown in U.S. CSP providers, given the uncertain economic outlook, most U.S. data center companies have begun to take cost-cutting initiatives such as Freeze hiring. We need to continue monitoring to see if data center chip shipments will slow down in 2023, although the data may disappoint market expectations. (2) Automotive chips: When we look at the inventory days in the global automotive supply chain, we also find that from global OEMs (BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen) to idm (Renesas, Infineon, NXP, Texas Instruments and ST Micro) ) and auto parts systems suppliers (Continental, Denso and Magna), there has been a clear uptick in the entire supply chain. We saw the largest increase in inventory days for Continental and Denso, from 58 and 52 days in 1Q20 to 71 and 72 days in 2Q22. However, there is also good market news. Before the market on Thursday, according to NVIDIA's 8K form submitted to the US SEC, the company has obtained authorization from the US government (as of March 1, 2023) and can continue to develop H100 integrated circuits. export, re-export and domestic (technology) transfer. Last night, Nvidia fell by nearly 13% during the session, and its stock price fell back to May 2021. However, it rose and fell by more than 7% in late trading. For this, in the downward period of the global economic cycle, when the game house no longer replaces new computers for a better experience, it makes no sense whether Nvidia's 3090TI or AMD's 6950XT is faster; ” belief collapsed, and graphics cards became entertainment in Internet cafes; even when scholars did not have sufficient budgets, building a data center for research became a luxury. industry. Editor/ping Risk Warning: The opinions of the authors or guests shown above have their own specific positions, and investment decisions need to be based on independent thinking. Futu will endeavour but cannot guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the above content, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any inaccuracies or omissions.

(Responsible editor:Aerospace stock)

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