US stock outlook | Non-agricultural data is better than expected! The futures index soared, and the market lowered bets on the Fed to raise interest rates

time:2022-09-29 05:00:32 author:Individual stock recommendation
US stock outlook | Non-agricultural data is better than expected! The futures index soared, and the market lowered bets on the Fed to raise interest rates

Global macro

  • Non-agricultural data was better than expected, and the three major stock index futures rose in a straight line
After the release of the US non-agricultural data in August, the three major stock index futures Straight up. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.59%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.68%; Nasdaq Composite futures rose 0.6%. At the same time, the market lowered bets on the Fed raising interest rates. The Fed swaps showed the market pricing the Fed's terminal rate down to 3.91%. Source: Futu Securities
  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 in August, the smallest increase since April 2021
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 in August The number of people, the smallest increase since April 2021, is estimated to increase by 300,000 people, and the previous value is an increase of 528,000 people. The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.7% in August, the first increase in 5 months, and was estimated at 3.5%, compared with the previous value of 3.5%. The agency commented on the US non-farm data: the unemployment rate has risen, but the reason for the rise in the unemployment rate is positive, because the labor force participation rate has risen, which means that more people are starting to join the labor force.
  • Fed officials: We are far from inflation target now, and it is very difficult to achieve a soft landing
Atlanta Fed President Bostic (2024 FOMC vote committee) said on Thursday that the Fed will The action to cool inflation is still not done, it is currently very high and must be lowered to the 2% target, but it is still very far from that target. Bostic said the Fed is working hard to achieve a soft landing by lowering inflation without layoffs, but there is a risk of an economic downturn. He noted that when the Fed suppresses demand, there is a risk of a slowdown in the economy that stops growth, loses all momentum, and then slips into recession. A soft landing is a very difficult thing and has only happened once or twice in U.S. history.
  • Hedge Fund Giants: Not Europe and America! The Asian stock market will be the first to rebound next year.
The hedge fund Man Group expects that the weaker inflation and the end of the income reduction cycle in the future will lay the foundation for an early rebound in the Asian stock market, and the Asian stock market will outperform the stock market in other regions next year. . In Asia, the hedge fund giant is betting on defensive stocks in India and Southeast Asia, while warning that stocks across North Asia remain more vulnerable to trade headwinds and other impacts.
  • Yen falls to its lowest level since 1998 amid expectations of aggressive Fed rate hikes
The dollar index, which reflects the strength of the dollar's strength, jumps to a record as U.S. Treasury yields climb High, while USD/JPY moved above the key 140 mark for the first time since 1998. As of press time, the yen has continued its weak trend yesterday, and is now quoted at 140.39 yen against the US dollar; the US dollar index remains near a historical high of 109.
  • G7 finance ministers will support a cap on Russian oil prices
The timing of the start of the price cap will vary, according to an official briefed on the G7 finance ministers' meeting It is consistent with the implementation time of the EU's import ban on Russian oil: an embargo on crude oil will be implemented on December 5 this year, and an embargo on refined oil will be implemented on February 5 next year. The move has the backing of the European Commission, but also requires the support of EU member states. Officials also said that for the sanctions to be most effective, they would need support from third countries that buy large amounts of Russian oil, such as India.
  • "Sister Wood" sold Tesla on Thursday to buy Nvidia
Nvidia tumbled 7.67% overnight, and ARK Fund owned by "Sister Wood" Cathy Wood bought on Thursday About 297,800 shares of the company were worth about $41.5 million at the closing price. In addition, ARK funds sold more than 150,000 Tesla (TSLA.O) shares, worth about $41.57 million at the closing price. It is worth noting that ARK funds sold about 293,000 Nvidia shares last week, worth more than $50 million.

Hot news

  • Star technology stocks rose before the market, most rose
  • Apple ushered in a milestone: iPhone ranks first in US market share Over 50%
The Financial Times reported that as of the end of June this year, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ mobile phones accounted for more than 50% of US smartphones for the first time. According to Counterpoint Research, the market share of over 50% is the highest share of the iPhone since its launch in 2007.
  • NVIDIA said it is still licensed to develop H100 chips in China, and restricting sales is not the same as cutting off supply
$ NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ said that on August 31, the U.S. government has already Authorizes the development of the NVIDIA H100 for export, re-export, and domestic transfer purposes; the authorization also allows the company to proceed through March 1, 2023 to perform the export required to support the A100's U.S. customers, as well as card repairs and card repairs in China, through March 1, 2023 Services; in addition, the U.S. government has authorized A100 and H100 order fulfillment and logistics through the company’s Hong Kong facility until September 1, 2023. Nvidia also said: "The US government's new authorization requirements are not exactly the same as a ban on sales and supply, but an additional license application requirement for related designated products. We are working with customers in China to meet their plans or requirements. In the future, there is a need to purchase alternative products, and may seek new licenses if there are insufficient alternatives."
  • Tesla plans to hire a large number of employees in Montreal, Canada, or build a factory here
According to reports, Twitter user Alex Oha found that $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ is recruiting HR in Montreal, Canada, and the HR will be responsible for a large number of recruits. Unlike general HR, Tesla only recruits such HR in places where gigafactories are already established, such as Texas in the United States and Berlin in Germany. Therefore, this implies that Tesla may build a new Gigafactory in Montreal, Canada.
  • India plans to speed up product safety approvals, Apple, Samsung may benefit from it
According to media reports, India plans to adopt a strategy of parallel testing (Parallel Testing) to speed up the safety of new electronic devices Approval, parallel testing has shortened the original approval time from 16 to 21 weeks to 5 to 8 weeks. At present, the Bureau of Indian Standards has started a pilot work, while $ Apple (AAPL.US) $, $ Samsung Electronics (ADR) (SSNGY.US)$ or benefit from it.
  • Meta and Qualcomm reach agreement on custom VR chips
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ announced Friday at the Consumer Electronics Conference in Berlin, with Qualcomm (QCOM.O) ) signed a deal to have Qualcomm produce custom chipsets for its Quest VR headset. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
  • "Tencent in Southeast Asia" Sea began the second wave of layoffs, and the game department became a hardest hit area
On September 2, some media quoted two people familiar with the matter as saying that there was a "small Tencent in Southeast Asia" "Singapore technology giant $Sea (SE.US)$ will start the second wave of layoffs, among which the gaming sector has become the hardest hit area for layoffs. Sea fell 1.5 percent in premarket trading.
  • Shell CEO Van Beurden is rumored to be ready to leave next year
$Shell PLC (SHEL.US)$ has identified four replacement CEOs, Ben van Beurden, sources said. ), Van Beurden is set to step down next year after nearly a decade at the helm of the energy giant.
  • Starbucks appoints CEO successor and will take over in April next year to replace founder Schultz
$ Starbucks (SBUX.US)$ announced that it has appointed Laxman Narasimhan as the company's next CEO . Narasimhan is currently the CEO of British consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser. He will quit his job at Reckitt Benckiser at the end of September and join Starbucks in October before becoming CEO and a member of the board of directors on April 1, 2023.

Focus on Chinese concept stocks

  • Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell before the market
  • Buffett sold another HK$450 million BYD! The shareholding ratio dropped to 18.87%
On Friday, September 2, according to the disclosure document of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the company sold Berkshire-A (BRK.A.US) $ on September 1. 1.716 million $BYD shares (01211.HK) $H shares, with an average selling price of HK$262.7243 per share, cashing out HK$451 million. After this reduction, Buffett still holds 207 million shares, and his shareholding ratio has dropped to 18.87%. $BYD (ADR) (BYDDY.US) $ fell nearly 3% premarket.
  • Yum China (YUMC.US)$ fell 2.63% to $47.36 before the market, H shares fell more than 4% today
$ Yum China (YUMC.US)$ fell more than 4%. Market expectations for future monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve have increased, which could affect economic sentiment and consumer spending. Recently, Yum China's brands have repeatedly been exposed to food safety issues.
  • Appearance patent of Lili Auto VR glasses and control ring was authorized
According to the Tianyancha App, on September 2, $ Li Auto (LI.US)$ affiliated companies Beijing Auto and The two appearance patents of "VR Glasses" and "Ring" applied by Jia Auto Technology Co., Ltd. were authorized.
  • HSBC Research: Cut Weibo's target price to $22, rated Hold
HSBC Research pointed out that although $Weibo (WB.US)$ performed better than expected during the period, the Affected by macro challenges and the epidemic, revenue still fell by 22% year-on-year, of which advertising revenue from Ali fell by 41%. By vertical, the automotive, gaming, and food and beverage industries performed better, while apparel and cosmetics performed poorly. HSBC Research lowered Weibo's revenue forecast from 2022 to 2024 by 2% to 3%, and the US stock target price was lowered from $26 to $22, maintaining a hold rating.

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Financial forecast

22:00 U.S. durable goods orders monthly rate revision 23:30 U.S. weekly ECRI leading indicator annual rate editor/emily risk reminder: above The views of the authors or guests shown have their own specific positions, and investment decisions should be based on independent thinking. Futu will endeavour but cannot guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the above content, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any inaccuracies or omissions.

(Responsible editor:Market analysis)

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