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How do we think about current housing prices?

time：2023-03-24 01:35:19 source：clevelanddrifters.com author：Individual stock analysis

How do we think about current housing prices?

Some time ago, there was a very popular article about housing prices reaching the top, which probably means that from the current population structure, it can be clearly judged that housing prices are seriously overvalued. Most of today's children are only children. According to the Chinese tradition of being diligent and thrifty, if nothing else happens, he will inherit the three houses of grandpa, grandma, grandma, grandfather, father and mother in the future. If the only child gets married, then they will There will be 6 houses in hand. And you are not good at selling, because everyone's situation is similar, who are you selling to? Simply put, this makes sense. But careful analysis reveals that there are logical loopholes in this argument. It ignores two elements: time and place. Let's talk about time first, let's say you are 20 years old now, your parents are 40, and your grandparents are 60. Ignoring emotional factors, we simply discuss the topic here. It will take about 20 years for you to get the house of your grandparents, and about 40 years after you can get the house of your parents. Not to mention anything else, but looking at these 40 years is enough to change many things over the vicissitudes of life, it is completely meaningless for individuals. Let's look at the location, where is your grandparents' house? Where is my parents' house? Where are you fighting now, most of them are not together. The elderly are basically in small cities in the fifth and sixth tiers, and some grandparents are in small counties. Even if you could get the houses, it wouldn't help. You still have to sell them, and you have to keep buying houses in big cities. Therefore, a plan that seems to make you a winner in life is actually not reliable at all. The level of housing prices depends on the population. After all, houses are used to live in. The skyrocketing housing prices in big cities in the past few years are due to people’s rigid needs, and secondly, some people’s speculation after seeing this potential market. But hype cannot be divorced from fundamentals, which means it cannot be separated from demand. The Beijing property market is an example. There were various expectations and various news at that time. When there was no influx of people in the end, the house price was cut in half. This is the hype that breaks away from the basic plate, and in the end it is self-brewing bitter fruit. The country is now taking the lead in the real estate market, which is also in our best interest. After all, the skyrocketing and slumping will ultimately hurt the common people. How terrifying the two real estate crashes in Hong Kong are. Many celebrities have to come back because of their failure to invest in real estate to make money and pay off their debts. In the future, we will exchange time for space, and use the fast-growing economy to support high housing prices and achieve a soft landing. This is also a global problem, and no country has ever realized it. Neighboring Japan, due to the collapse of housing prices, has not recovered from the 1990s to the present, which economists call the lost 20 years. The mighty old beauty was almost killed by the house. The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 was because of housing, a large number of loans were given to those who could not repay, and then these debts were packaged and sold to investors in small portions, which is called financial innovation. In the end, it created a domino effect, and everyone had to almost finish the game. Besides, in our country, the housing prices in big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen with continuous inflow of population should fluctuate at a high level, and cities in the third and fourth tiers without industrial advantages and depleted resources will follow suit. With the loss of population, housing prices will continue to fall. To judge the level of housing prices, we should look at the local economy and population mobility, not experts. Experts will always tell you the best time to buy a home was last year.

(Responsible editor：Aerospace stock)

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