The latest meeting benefited from the hot spot and the new hot spot after the Fed rate hike slowed down-clevelanddrifters.com

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The latest meeting benefited from the hot spot and the new hot spot after the Fed rate hike slowed down

time：2023-03-24 01:25:50 source：clevelanddrifters.com author：Garbage

The latest meeting benefited from the hot spot and the new hot spot after the Fed rate hike slowed down

The signal from the July Politburo meeting Why is the mid-year Politburo meeting at the end of July important? Because the setting of the July meeting is usually managed until the end of the year. By convention, a mid-year Politburo meeting will be held at the end of July (7/31 in 2018, 7/30 in 2019-2021, and all on Friday; this time in 2022 is 7/28), the theme is usually " Analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year." Everyone has their own understanding and interpretation of the policy. The most important thing is to read the original text first. If you have it, you have it, if you don't have it, you don't have it. Don't impose it. I have seen many people's interpretations of the 7.28 Politburo meeting, which seems to reflect the high ability to understand readers; but to be honest, I really can't see the extra content. Tamami believes that in the full text, the management has only expressed one meaning, focusing on "guarantee" and neglecting "stimulus". This is the intention in all fields, so from a qualitative point of view, it is not as expected. 7.28 The economic target was downplayed to "maintain a reasonable range". Due to the severe impact on economic growth in the second quarter, the cumulative year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first half of the year reached 2.5%; if efforts are made to achieve the annual target of 5.5%, the GDP growth rate in the second half of the year will need to be around 8%. To be honest, under normal factors, this is difficult to achieve unless there is an unexpected stimulus. Including the 4.29 Politburo meeting actually accelerated the market's positive expectations, and only then did the rebound in May-June. Obviously, the strong stimulus expected by the market this time has failed, which also means that the third quarter is a process of gaining momentum and finishing. We observe the trend on 7.29 and the reaction of the sector to the 7.28 meeting. Taking real estate as an example, the group rebounded before, and 7.29 was differentiation. - City, diving after the meeting; and the positive logic is that China Merchants-Shekou, Poly-Development and other state-owned and state-owned enterprises remain stable. Market expectations are strong stimuli, but when it is a guarantee, the inverse logic of poor performance will naturally have the greatest impact; for positive logic and performance varieties, it is more neutral, which is a market reaction point. If it is a strong stimulus, concept stocks and reverse logic will benefit; if it is a stable class, weights and forward logic will benefit. Hot revelation after the Fed raised interest rates in July On July 28, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September is 37%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in November At 14.8%, the remaining 3 meetings of the year will raise the interest rate by about 100 basis points in aggregate to raise the interest rate to 3.32%. Clearly, the cycle of big rate hikes is coming to an end. What does this mean? "Commodities open the era of big bears? As introduced in "Comprehensive Review of the Impact of Related Hot Spots", the interest rate gap between China and the United States, and after the interest rate hike, the rotation of hot spots, the seesaw effect of "commodities-technology". Therefore, favorable technology stocks is the key message transmitted after the Fed raises interest rates. Therefore, after 7.28, the US stock market and A-share market are also dominated by technology, such as semiconductors, electronic components, optical optoelectronics, etc., which are all based on technological factors. In fact, on July 21, the US Senate passed the "Chip and Science Act" with 64 votes to 32 votes. In addition to subsidies for the semiconductor industry, the bill will also allocate funds for the research and development of cutting-edge technology, involving about 2,800 One hundred million U.S. dollars. The first is to provide $52.7 billion in financial support to the semiconductor industry to encourage companies to develop and manufacture chips in the United States, and to provide these companies with a 25% investment tax credit; the second is to authorize about $200 billion in scientific and Funding for technical research. ——If this is the case in the United States, which is a technologically advanced country, then if my country wants not to continue to be stuck in the semiconductor field, it is bound to increase the number of related fields. It's just that the market is now crowded with new energy sources, and it's a bit of a reaction to this. Research policy, including industry factors, is not based on a certain point, but a continuous analysis. Because the statement of a certain point cannot see the relevant factors, it must be continuous attention, and then find the difference between the different points. The same is true of the industry. If you only look at the rebound cycle, then your research has a considerable factor that is disconnected, and it must be tracked throughout the cycle and the entire process. Including our analysis of the new energy (vehicle) series in the first half of the year, and focusing on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals in the second half of the year, the decline cycle is also tracked, so that we can pay attention to the trend change; for the same reason, the rebound cycle also pays attention to the overdraft phenomenon after the value factor is realized. Next, we will do a study on the financial reports and related factors of US stock technology stocks.

(Responsible editor：Individual stock recommendation)

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